关键词：微观模拟; 公共政策; 课程
国际微观模拟协会主席--President of International Microsimulation Association (IMA)
比利时联邦规划局高级分析师--Senior Analyst at the Federal Planning Bureau
鲁汶大学教授--Professor of University of Leuven
Day 1 March 14th ，Wednesday
14:00-17:00 An overview of dynamic microsimulation models used outside academics in EU member states
Day 2 March 15th ，Thursday
9:00-12:00 Aplications of dynaminc microsimulation——The social and budgetary impacts of the 2015 social security reform in Belgium
14:00-17:00 Aplications of dynaminc microsimulation——Assessing the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary.
Day 3 March 16th ，Friday
9:00-12:00 LIAM 2 (I)：a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models
LIAM 2 (I)：离散时间的动态微观模拟模型的工具
14:00-17:00 LIAM 2 (II)：a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models
LIAM 2 (II)：离散时间的动态微观模拟模型的工具
1. An overview of dynamic microsimulation models used outside academics in EU member states.
Retirement income provision via public pension schemes is a traditional field in which dynamic microsimulation have been used. Many models used outside of academia in EU member states are less well known, because they are less often documented in English, and their results not often published in international journals and reports.
The aim of this presentation is to introduce various types of dynamic microsimulation models (longitudinal -, cross-sectional and static ageing), discrete or continuous time, single or multiple “model points”, data sources) and discuss their pros and cons. Next, an overview of models used by public institutions or ministries will be discussed. This awareness of what is going on elsewhere might allow the audience to assess their own (possible) investments or developments and learn from others.
Based on Gijs Dekkers and Karel Van Den Bosch, 2016 - Prospective microsimulation of pensions in European Member States. In: Dekkers, Gijs, and József Mészáros (Eds), 2017, Applications of microsimulation modelling, Budapest: Társadalombiztosítási Könyvtár. 13-33, ISBN 978 963 693 766 9.
2. Aplications of dynaminc microsimulation——The social and budgetary impacts of the 2015 social security reform in Belgium
This presentation discusses the impact of recent social security reform on the development of sustainability as well as adequacy in Belgium. The impact analyses in this paper have been done using two separate yet consistent models. The analysis of the budgetary impact is based on the MALTESE system of models (Model for Analysis of Long-Term Evolution of Social Expenditure). The analysis of the adequacy of the social security reform is done using the most recent version of the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS (Microsimulation for the Development of Adequacy and Sustainability).
This presentation demonstrates the use of microsimulation jointly with budgetary meso-models in the assessment of reform of pensions, unemployment and early retirement schemes. It also shows the sometimes unexpected results of microsimulation models, thereby highlighting their value.
Based on Gijs Dekkers, Raphaël Desmet, Saskia Weemaes and Nicole Fasquelle, 2015, The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium. Based on: Gijs Dekkers, Raphaël Desmet, Nicole Fasquelle, Saskia Weemaes, 2015, The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium. In Ioana Salagean, Catalina Lomos & Anne Hartung, “The young and the elderly at risk: Individual outcomes and contemporary policy challenges in European societies”, Intersentia. ISBN 978-1-78068-343-0. Chapter 6, pp. 129-158.
3. Aplications of dynaminc microsimulation——On using dynamic microsimulation models to assess the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary.
This presentation is based on an international project done in the context of the 2015PAR. The SPC wg AGE (A European-level policy group of high-ranking civil servants of which I am one of the representatives for Belgium) decided that Belgium, Hungary and Sweden would use their dynamic microsimulation models to simulate possible developments of pension adequacy, while taking into ac-count the projections and hypotheses of the AWG. The results of this project not only show the consequences of the AWG hypotheses and projections on prospective poverty risks in countries with different pension systems and under different circumstances, but also demonstrate the potential value of using dynamic microsimulation on the EU level.
This presentation makes the case of assessing ageing and (pension) policy from the angle of sustainability and adequacy jointly. As such, it bridges the gap between EPC/AWG on the one hand, and SPC on the other.
Based on Gijs Dekkers, Raphaël Desmet, Ádám Rézmovits, Olle Sundberg, and Krisztián Tóth), On using dynamic microsimulation models to assess the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary. Based on a paper presented to the SPC Working Group on Ageing Issues (SPC-WG-AGE), Brussels, March 27th, 2015.
NOTE: within the SPC wg AGE, an update of this exercise is currently going on, with my again as project manager. I will probably be able to present the 2018 results instead of those of 2015.
4. LIAM 2: a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models.
LIAM2 is an open source language for the development and use of static and dynamic (discrete-time cross-sectional ageing) models. It has been developed by the FPB, in collaboration with LISER, and is being used by various modelling teams worldwide. LIAM2 is based on Python. It is open source and therefore free of charge, and can be downloaded from the LIAM2 website http://liam2.plan.be/
This presentation will start with discussing the goals and philosophies behind LIAM2, a brief comparison with other specific simulation tools (Modgen, Jamsim, …).
The main part will however be and a hands-on demonstration of a number of simple exemplary static and dynamic microsimulation models, using a small dataset. This requires that LIAM2 and its demonstration package is downloaded from the website onto the PC used for the presentations.
If a computer room is available, then the audience could use LIAM2 itself to work on the basis of these examples.
The idea behind this course is not so much to convince the audience to adopt LIAM2 or not, but rather to show the use of a(ny) taylor-made language for microsimulation, and to inspire the audience for their own methodological developments.
Among other things based on de Menten, Gaëtan, Gijs Dekkers, Geert Bryon, Philippe Liégeois, Cathal O’Donoghue, 2014, LIAM2: a new open source development tool for discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models, Journal of Artificial Societies and Simulation, 17(3)9.
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