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Using the conventional concept of implicit tax, we investigate pension incentives to retire for private sector employees in China. The social security pension consists of pay-as-you-go defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) systems. Based on Chinese official parameters and the revised OECD models, our studies conclude that the DB system discourages people from working more, but the DC system offers considerably greater incentives at the expense of financial sustainability. If the annuity factors in the DC scheme were linked to the probability of retirees’ mortality, then both constant incentives to work longer and financial sustainability could be achieved.
Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project surveys for 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2013, we investigate the role of public pensions in income inequality among households with elderly members across two decades of pension policy reforms. We examine the distribution and role of public pensions at a national level. We analyse the evolution of the contribution of public pensions to national income inequality across a much more extended time period than earlier studies, which have generally focused on regional changes over short periods. Our findings suggest that public pensions have become the most important source of income for households with elderly members on average in China, but the distribution of pension income is highly unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.74 in 2013. Public pension income has been the largest source of income inequality for elderly households since 2002 and contributed to more than half of total income inequality in the most recent year of the survey. This finding is robust against variations in the income inequality measures used. Additionally, our analysis suggests unequal distribution of pension benefits is the primary driver of pensioners’ income inequality. Among several hypothetical policy changes, ensuring a minimum pension benefit for all existing pensioners seems to be the most fiscally effective option in reducing income inequality, with a 0.8% reduction in the Gini coefficient for a 1% increase in public pension expenditure.
The relevance of tax progressivity measures to policy-making depends on whether they help assess the social welfare implications of taxation. This paper proposes a social welfare function framework to derive measures of tax progressivity and explore their normative properties. Using the social welfare framework, we derive the Kakwani index from Sen’s social welfare function as well as a new class of progressivity measures that incorporate a distribution judgment parameter capturing inequality aversion. The paper also draws social welfare implications of Suits' measure of tax progressivity. In addition, the paper proposes a new measure of tax progressivity derived from Bonferroni social welfare function. We apply the methodology developed in the paper to the Australian data on individual taxes for the 2014–2015 financial year.
The high economic growth and increasing inequality have been the two main features of the Chines economy since the end of the 1970s. The economic growth contributed to a substantial reduction in poverty, and the worsening income distribution contributed to an increase in poverty. The adverse impact of worsening income distribution did not offset the massive reduction in poverty. The primary aim of this paper is to define and measure patterns of growth through poverty elasticity of income sources. It makes methodological contributions in the derivations of this elasticity. The paper analyzes the patterns of growth to Rural China in the period 2007-2013, utilizing the Household and Income Project (CHIP). The empirical results showed that the economic growth has been unfavorable to the poor. It amounted to a loss of almost 25% of growth rate. If China’s objective to eliminate poverty by 2020, such a degree of anti-poor growth should be of concern to the policy makers in China. The paper has drawn many policy conclusions. It has identified which policies are pro-poor, and which are not. And which policies can achieve a rapid reduction in poverty.
This study uses migrant household survey data from 2008 and 2009 to examine how parental migration decisions are associated with the nutritional status of children in rural and urban China. Results from instrumental variables regressions show a substantial adverse effect of children’s exposure to parental migration on height-for-age Z-scores of left-behind children relative to children who migrate with their parents. Additional results from a standard Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, a quantile decomposition, and a counterfactual distribution analysis all confirm that children who are left behind in rural villages – usually because of the oppressive hukou system – have poorer nutritional status than children who migrate with their parents, and the gaps are biggest at lower portions of the distribution.
多维贫困理念起源于阿玛蒂亚·森的“可行能力理论”,推广于《2010年人类发展报告》,目前已经在14个国家形成官方标准。中国尚未在官方层面使用多维贫困指数,但新世纪以来的减贫目标都充分体现了“多维”思想。本文的综述逻辑是:首先比较一维贫困和多维贫困的产生和发展历程,阐述了多维贫困的内涵、发展和常用的测算思路。然后,比较分析多维贫困的优势。接下来,以哥伦比亚、墨西哥和巴基斯坦的官方多维贫困指标体系为例,给出多维贫困的国际实践。最后,回到中国扶贫实践,简评多维思想在中国扶贫工作中的现实意义和应用前景。
随着工资水平的上扬和计算机技术的日臻成熟,计算机在工作岗位上的应用日益普遍。 根据新近的城市劳动力调查资料,58%的城市在岗职工在工作中需要使用计算机。在控制了个人特征、人力资本水平和工作任务属性等因素,并考虑了不可观测的特征可能产生的潜在影响后,我们发现使用计算机可以带来 12-15%的工资回报。使用企业-员工匹配调查数据的稳健性检验,仍然支持在工作中使用计算机会带来生产率提升的基本判断。计算机使用与劳动力市场的进一步结合有利于中国经济转向以生产率推动的经济增长模式,也有助于应对加速出现的老龄化进程。
借助多维贫困指标体系,本文旨在评估中国农村地区1995-2013年期间的扶贫工作效果。主要回答的问题包括:1995-2013年期间中国农村地区的多维贫困程度变动,分项指标对整体贫困的贡献,以及多维贫困状态间的差异。结论显示,伴随扶贫政策的深入,农村多维贫困程度不断下降;自费医疗支出负担对整体贫困造成的影响最大,贡献最高;老年群体、低受教育程度群体、西部地区和贫困县等子群体的贫困程度均很高。稳健性分析显示,改变子维度的代理变量、改变权重结构或去掉某些维度,本文结论仍然成立。
Adopting a simple demand system, we aim to re-estimate China.s income inequality using the Urban Household Survey (UHS) data assuming the expenditure data is well measured. We find income inequality growth exceeds the growth rate of consumption inequality, although income inequality is still lower than consumption inequality over the period 2003-2009. We also .nd that the increase of income inequality is mainly due to the increase of inequality between the middle expenditure group and the high expenditure group, while the income inequality between the middle-expenditure group and the low-expenditure group slightly decreases. This not only confirms the presence of pervasive grey income, also implying that grey incomes mostly exist in the high-expenditure stratum. Following Aguiar and Bils (2015), we assume that the Engel coeffcient is log-linear and that the income elasticities are constant over time. In the robustness test, we relax the assumptions and find that the estimation results are still robust.
利用微观面板数据,考察家庭房产价值变化对城镇居民非住房消费的影响,在此基础上对影响的作用机制和群体性差异行了研究。本文主要有以下发现:首先,房产价值变化正向显著影响消费,但量级较小,进一步来看长期比短期影响更为明显。其次,针对作用机制检验的研究发现,本文否认了直接财富效应和抵押品效应,同时支持了预防性储蓄动机。再次,进一步来看,预防性储蓄动机的发挥,在不同地域、不同房价地区和不同住房数量的人群中存在显著差异。
利用2013年中国家庭收入调查数据,本文考察了住房公积金制度的收入分配效应及其影响机制。结果表明,城镇居民在公积金的缴存、提取和贷款环节上存在明显差异,在公有制单位、垄断行业工作的管理和专业技术人员从中受益最多,公积金制度放大了他们既有的收入优势。在全部四种公积金影响居民收入的机制中,除因公积金强制储蓄而损失利息会缩小收入差距外,雇主为职工缴存公积金、职工因缴存公积金获得个人所得税减免、职工因使用公积金贷款而节省利息支出均显著地扩大了收入差距。公积金总体上显著提高了城镇收入不平等,使收入基尼系数上升约1.5个百分点。
Most poverty research has explored monetary poverty. This paper presents and analyses the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) estimations for China. Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find China’s global MPI was 0.035 in 2010 and decreased significantly to 0.017 in 2014. The dimensional composition of MPI suggests that nutrition, education, safe drinking water and cooking fuel contribute most to overall non-monetary poverty in China. Such analysis is also applied to sub-groups, including geographic areas (rural/urban, east/central/west, provinces), as well as social characteristics such as gender of the household heads, age, education level, marital status, household size, migration status, ethnicity, and religion. We find the level and composition of poverty differs significantly across certain subgroups. We also find high levels of mismatch between monetary and multidimensional poverty at the household level, which highlights the importance of using both complementary measures to track progress in eradicating poverty.
本文建立了中国公积金可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),将现实状况与“取消公积金”的反事实情形进行对比,研究了住房公积金与居民收入、居民消费、整体宏观经济的关系。主要基础数据是2009年城镇住户调查数据和2010年社会核算矩阵。文章包含理论分析和模型分析两个部分:首先,梳理了住房公积金分布的影响和可能产生的动态冲击,其中解释了公积金在一般均衡框架下的冲击机制,并建立了一个局部均衡分析框架,讨论住房公积金与企业人工成本的理论关系。其次,借助CGE模型模拟了“取消公积金”情形下经济系统的一般均衡状态,从数值角度了解住房公积金的冲击。研究发现:住房公积金在多数情况下会提高企业人工成本,不过,提高公积金的实际效用能够减缓它对人工成本的负面影响;取消公积金对可支配收入产生三个层次的影响,不同机制设计可能造成不同结果;2010年模型结果显示,取消公积金会降低整体可支配收入水平,但低收入家庭的可支配收入水平会增加,从而增加整体居民消费,拉动商品市场的需求,在一定程度上增加生产部门的总产出,并进一步增加居民的市场收入;取消公积金能够使得收入基尼系数和居民消费基尼系数分别下降2.06%和2.15%左右;公积金对收入不平等产生影响的主要原因是它主要被高收入家庭提取,而低收入家庭很难从公积金中获益。根据本文结果,公积金带来了一些负面影响,但也应看到它的积极意义,是否取消应慎重考虑;若以改良为改革方向,重点在于两个要点,一是如何让更多低收入家庭受益,二是如何提高公积金对于职工的实际效用。
China’s Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee program (Dibao) is the largest social safety-net program in the world. Given the scale and the popularity of Rural Dibao, it is necessary to rigorously evaluate it so that policymakers know the extent to which the program meets its intended objective of reducing poverty. This paper develops some new methods and uses data from the 2013 Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP2013) to examine the targeting performance of the rural Dibao program. The paper has found that the Rural Dibao program suffers from very low targeting accuracy, high exclusion error, and inclusion error, and yields a significant negative social rate of return. It discusses possible causes and argues that the fundamental mechanism has to be redesigned to increase the effectiveness of the program. The paper makes some recommendations to reform Dibao that will significantly improve targeting and reduce the cost of running the program. That will help China to achieve its goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2020.
Numerous empirical studies have documented a strong association between social networks and individuals' migration decisions. Few papers formally analyse how social networks affect both migration decisions that affect the evolution of social networks overtime, and labor market outcomes. In order to understand these relationships, I develop and estimate a dynamic model with return and repeated migration, social network investment decisions and labor market transitions. The model distinguishes between two channels through which social networks may affect migration decisions: (1) a direct effect on migration costs and (2) an indirect effect on labor market outcomes through the job arrival rate. I use the model to study one of the largest ongoing internal migrations in human history: rural-urban migration in China. To estimate the model, I use panel data from the Chinese Household Income Project (2007-2009). The estimation results show that social networks affect both channels significantly. Individuals with networks have 40% higher job arrival rate than those without networks on average. In addition, social networks reduce average migration costs by 7%. I also show that policies that directly lower migration costs may be more cost effective at increasing rural-urban migration in China. These policy experiments also show that without considering the impact of network investment, the government has to spend more to offset the effect of no investment in social networks.
We use 1995, 2002 and 2013 CHIP data to investigate the urban household consumption expenditure inequality. The overall inequality of urban household consumption expenditure measured by Gini coefficient slightly decreases from 0.33 in 1995 to 0.32 in 2002, but increases to 0.36 in 2013. However, the percentile ratio of p90/p10 shows that consumption inequality increases all the time. Besides, the inequality of basic food consumption is much smaller than the overall consumption, its contribution to the overall consumption inequality decreases from 20% in 1995 and 2002 to 15% by 2013, and its share also decreases steadily from 34% in 1995 to 30% in 2002 and further to 24% in 2013, and finally its share steadily decreases as the overall consumption level moving up the distribution in each of the three years. The inequality of housing consumption is much larger than overall consumption but decreasing over time, its contribution to the overall consumption inequality increases 35% in earlier two years to 40% by 2013, and its share also sharply increases from 23% in 1995 to 30% in 2002 and further to 38% in 2013, besides its share shows upward sloping as overall consumption level increases in each of the three years.
Past studies of the gender wage gap in urban China have found that since the 1980s the gap between men and women’s wage earnings has progressively widened. Using data from the CHIP urban household surveys for the years 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2013, we provide consistent estimates of the gender wage gap in urban China and investigate factors contributing to that gap. From 1995 to 2007 we find a substantial, progressive widening of the gap. From 2007 to 2013 we find that the gender wage gap took a new direction and narrowed. We discuss the gender wage gap in relation to structural changes in the urban economy and life cycle events, as well as government policies that affect women and men differentially. Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions reveal that the contribution of differences in characteristics between men and women to the wage gap had declined over time and, as of 2013 the gap was almost entirely unexplained. We investigate key factors underlying the gender wage gap in recent years, specifically, the relationships between wage earnings of women versus men and sector of employment as well as individual characteristics such as age, education, marriage and children.
The paper investigates the poverty status, trend and its determinants of Han and ethnic minorities in rural China using the CHIP 2002 and CHIP 2013 data. The study finds that household endowments and regional differences mainly lead ethnic minorities and Han households differ. When household endowments and regional differences are being equal, ethnic minorities had even lower probability of falling into absolute poverty than Han households in 2002; and there was no significant difference in probability of f falling into absolute poverty between Han and ethnic minority households in 2013. The decomposition results indicate that higher educational returns for ethnic minorities was the major reason makes the ethnic minorities had lower probability of falling into poverty than Han households in 2002. In sum, the supportive policy from both central and local governments is effective to reduce the poverty for ethnic minorities and ethnic minority areas. The study provides some policy implications for China to get ridding of poverty, in particular for ethnic minority areas. There could be more supports for ethnic minority areas, expand the policy implementation in ethnic minority area. We also suggest improving the educational achievement for people living in poverty. All the ethnic minority children from household under poverty should have equitable access to qualified education and increase their returns from education.
The inequality of wealth in China has increased rapidly in recent years. Prior to 1978 all Chinese households possessed negligible wealth. China therefore presents a fascinating case study of how inequality of household wealth increases as economic reform takes place, marketisation occurs, and capital accumulates. Wealth inequality and its growth are measured and decomposed using data from two national sample surveys of the China Household Income Project (CHIP) relating to 2002 and 2013. Techniques are devised and applied to measure the sensitivity of wealth inequality to plausible assumptions about under-representation of and under-reporting by the wealthy. An attempt is made to explain the rising wealth inequality in terms of the relationships between income and wealth, house price inflation, differential saving, and income from wealth.
This study examines these long-term changes in the distribution of rural income in China from the late 1980s until the mid-2010s. The major findings are summarized as follows. First, contrasting trends are found in the contributions of agricultural income and wage earnings, which reflects structural change in rural income caused by the dual process of economic development and systemic transition in the post-Mao era. Second, it is found that inequality in wealth is becoming increasingly important for understanding rural inequality. Third, there found small but substantial improvements in the redistributive and poverty impacts of public transfers before and after the implementation of pro-rural public policies in the first decade of this century, which has been a historic reversal in the long-lasting urban-biased public policy in contemporary China.
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